Sunday, May 19, 2024
Dr Ramkrishna Niraula/Dr Bharat Raj Poudel
Since the dawn of human history there are records of major disasters, be it mass elimination of a human civilization like Mohenjo-Daro and Harappa or the mass migration of people to sidestep diseases, famine or wars such as the Great Atlantic Migration. The recent 19th century or within the past 100 years presents us a collage of information that brought a significant overhaul to human society on economic and political fronts. There were great tales of wars fought for the expansion of empires in the early past. The recent ones were largely fought for global digital supremacy driven by economic interest. With a quick recap since World War I (WWI) followed by the era of industrialisation to cold-war and arms race, the major focus of nations was to accumulate wealth and strengthen their national economy. The loss of lives from diseases such as bubonic plague, malaria, aids, dengue, ebola were equally painful but did not bring human activity to such a grinding halt like the current Covid-19 global pandemic. The dropping of atom bombs over Hiroshima and Nagasaki in WWII and the aftermath has been a turning point to globalisation. The 2001 world trade centre twin tower disaster in the USA was another accelerator in changing the world socio-political dynamics.
The prominently featured awareness programs by the world organisations including the UN since the 80s to tackle global warming and climate change even after Covid-19 is still a challenge for global citizens as an environmental debt. Alas! The time to remediate the earth has to be now spent on finding a cure for Covid-19. However, the world is now in the race of hoarding upcoming vaccines. Several ongoing vaccine trials could soon be announced bringing game-changing results but anticipation grows about whether the vaccines will clear safety trials or be reliable. Politics of vaccine is risking the approval process as indicated by the World Health Organisation (WHO). WHO says “There is no time to waste in the fight against COVID-19. No-one is safe until everyone is safe”.
In recent days, the WHO expressed concern over dealing with “infodemic” which has been challenging since the start of Covid-19 as “misinformation and disinformation” putting lives at risk and undermining trust in science and health systems. Trust and solidarity are the most effective ways to tackle false information that is hindering the response to the pandemic.
Leadership Vacuum, Media and Democracy
A recent editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine titled, 'Dying in Leadership Vacuum' referring to the Johns Hopkins Centre for Systems Science and Engineering discussed the astounding failure of current leadership of the United States in handling COVID-19. But the question is how and why the super powers like the USA could not minimise or control the damage caused by the pandemic?
Indeed, COVID-19 has tested the US leadership. The United States have consistently behaved poorly and demonstrated abject failure in managing the COVID-19 crisis. Terminating the country's relationship with the World Health Organization (WHO), the USA has expressed concerns over conflicting views on the nature and origin of the virus outbreak.
During Covid-19 crisis global media and press freedom have been plunged into increased restrictions. Due to governments imposing restrictions on press freedom worldwide, the public health crisis has been exploited as an opportunity to curb and control media scrutiny. Let’s not only talk about western democracies but also countries that are not media-friendly by their constitutional arrangements. Majority of the South Asian countries were reported to be enforcing disappearances, unlawful detention and ferocity against critics and opposition activists, media censorship, intimidation, and prompting political inequalities.Even a democratically elected Communist Party of Nepal and its government was criticised for trying to restrain the press through repressive laws. However, the supreme court rescued people’s freedom of expression and media freedom. From the beginning of the pandemic, Nepali media outlets and journalists have been exposing ongoing more than a few ill-intended moves and corruptions so far.
Source: International Press Institute (IPI)
Critics have said democracy in South Asia and many other countries is going backwards, military and security establishments are gaining stronger footholds and powerful political actors have been said to be behind this scenario. With the lockdowns imposed to limit the spread of Covid-19, initially the authorities were taking grip on South Asian societies to be stronger which has now entered into next level as health and safety,economic and development planning activities have been in peril. Number of casualties, infected people and weaknesses of the respective governments were heavily criticised for the deceiving of the information that required to be dessiminated to the public.
The past millennia gallantly leapt from a crude gramophone era to the current smartphone age making living more convenient. The global economy during 2010 had reached such a juncture that; for rich and powerful nations, the only way to retain their global power was by the accumulation of more wealth into its national coffers. The current era of the Worldwide Web has effectively rendered its digital service to humanity through the internet. The heights of globalisation were torn apart when news on social media flooded with Arab springs, Brexit, and dived into the tensions of the South China Sea, including the Korean peninsula, and the Mediterranean. The social and political awareness of the masses were high and clear. The world had stopped waiting for a newspaper to arrive as social media was flooded everywhere for all sorts of true or fake coverage.
Mysteries, Strategic Disturbances and Humanity
In the meantime, the disappearance of MH370 passenger plane in 2014 became a mystery in the midst of superhuman technology. The nuclear war on the Korean peninsula was a few inches away from its trigger in 2017. It was also clear that neither side would afford such warfare. Social media certainly did play a positive role to diffuse such tensions. Peace had prevailed! Humanity has indeed adapted to live symbiotically with reconciling the changing dynamics of economic and political power. From the prevention of Aids and the prevailing use of contraceptives, from the use and abuse of electronic gadgets and smartphones to the boasts of artificial intelligence, human civilization has always adapted to its best for survival. Sometimes there is a sense of civilization confusion and fatigue, as there is too much pressure to cope with the multitude of information from the digital technology leading to further economic complexity.
Humanity has imagined and achieved what it had imagined, and we can’t deny the fact that a “small step will be a giant leap for mankind”. Are we migrating to Mars or another planet? Who will regulate the visas? However, it has been more than 40 years since landing on the moon and there is no indication that we are not going to leave the planet earth anytime and migrate elsewhere.
There was a time when cancer and tuberculosis used to be considered as deadly duo disease and a foe numero uno of humans. The world fought hard to eliminate polio and plague. However, viral influenza has always remained with us. In biological terms, viruses survive all the odds because they can mutate and change their strain to suit the environment they live on. Each year, billions of dollars are spent on vaccines for viral influenza. According to an article by Ealy et al, published in the children health defence on 28 July 2020; a total of 131, 332 Americans have died from pneumonia and 121,374 from Covid-19 as of July 11th, 2020. Now more than two hundread thorund people in USA have lost lives to Covid-19. If this report is to be considered, it is not only Covid-19 but several other diseases that are posing an equal threat to human health. The only solution is to find a viral influenza vaccine. Covid-19 came as an evil spell, and the world was unprepared for such a disease that spread by leaps and bounds from Wuhan to Washington, from Madrid to Melbourne, infecting one and all within a short time.
Health Challenges and Race for Vaccines
We do not know if a vaccine is an answer and we are not sure yet if is it cheap to produce and effective to use. It is unclear yet if it is easily accessible and affordable for general public use. People fear that the Covid-19 vaccine once ready would be traded like bullets during the post-cold war. As mentioned earlier, humans are highly agile and flexible creatures to adapt and survive all sorts of odds. These days people in many countries are introduced to alcohol sanitizer culture, face mask culture, social distancing culture and a culture of digital dependence for virtual meetings and schooling. People from all walks of life are learning the technical terms like PCR (polymerase chain reaction), Quarantine, swab test etc. which were limited to laboratory scientists and detectives before Covid-19 struck the world.
The race for ‘armamentation’ 50 years ago has become akin to the present race for finding a Covid-19 vaccine. The one who produces Covid-19 vaccine will have a bigger share in the feast of global power stage. The world is sharply divided over different conspiracy theories of; either an accidental research laboratory spill of virus or an infection of Coronavirus from animal to human. The outbreak of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China came with symptoms that are exacerbated by comorbidities. According to the initial reports, the Wuhan clinical symptoms were fever, cough and fatigue. There are contrasting reports and test results published from different sources in the aftermath projecting a wide array of symptoms and mortality factors. There are reports of SARS-like symptoms, organ failure, and long-term side effect on cured patients. At the moment, countries such as Australia are in the process of controlling and containing Covid-19 to bring active cases and deaths to zero levels. New Zealand has been successful in containing it although the recent report in the second week of August 2020 was shocking. However, Situation has been brought under control again. It is uncertain whether the control and elimination of Covid-19 can be achieved by countries like India, Brazil and USA given how it is increasing. Some countries such as Sweden had relaxed the coronavirus strategy in favour of herd immunity, but the result was not very convincing. The world is still waiting for a clearer picture regarding the spread and control of this pandemic, if not a quick solution. Humanity has to move forward and make a living. All sorts of doubts cast by the public on conspiracy theories may not be answered in future, but Covid-19 pandemic has provided the world leaders with a greater responsibility to come out with a common solution. At the moment, more than 700 laboratories are in the pursuit to find the vaccine for Covid-19 but the commercial rollout is unlikely until the end of 2020.
The novel coronavirus called Covid-19 is a type of viral influenza. If no antibody is present in a human body fails to lock viral antigen (spikes/crowns), it means the fresh infection is a new strain of virus due to mutation. Therefore, the new type of influenza vaccine is made each season and each year to cope with regularly mutating viral RNA. The vaccine is made up of real virus with intact outer coat called antigen or spike/crown but without its nucleic acid RNA. At the moment, COVID-19 is still a mystery from a layman’s knowledge. If it has mutated without a trace for a vaccine, then we have fallen short of time to cope when there will be several types of Covid-19 influenza strains in humans. Therefore, in our opinion, the world seriously needs to get hold of Covid-19 well on time if it really is an influenza and is mutating like the common viral influenza. The global population looks unanimous and optimistic on a united fight against this pandemic. Global citizens desperately need an ice-break against Covid-19. In fact, Covid-19 causes severe acute respiratory disease (SARS-CoV-2) which scientists named as Covid-19. A person may be carrying a disease but may not have a symptom and transmit it to others. This leads to community transmission. There is uncertainty regarding contact tracing. Therefore, there is no clear remedy to wipe out the corona virus from the world anytime soon.
Global Strategies to Minimise the Impact
Countries are working hard to minimise the impact of covid-19 in their economies and society while advanced economies have sought to limit the hit to households’ incomes during lockdown and low economic mobility. However, China emphasized on boosting output through government investment and more lending to businesses. US and UK are slower in terms of the economic front but remains a relative bright spot in contrast to China. While various factors helped to ensure a fast initial rebound in Chinese trade and economy, some aspects are likely to pose a challenging environment to China in 2021. With fears of growing new depression in the world economy, trade and financial collapse, its time to extend resilient and strong leadership in public health, business, government and wider society. It is sensible that governments, scientific and financial institutions constantly re-assess and re-evaluate the situation to work together in the days to come.
According to a press release from the WTO, the impact on the global economy brought by Covid-19 even if controlled in the next six to twelve months is still going to be momentous. It will take another two to three years for the world economy to come back in the pre-covid state if we were to start the Covid flu shot from today. By that time, people will have possibly changed their consumer habits. Besides real-estate, luxury and hobby items, consumer goods also include international travel and tourism. The demand and supply chain of commodities will be broken and to establish this back will take significant time.
Moreover, the mental health of people is an important aspect of global well-being. Irrespective of any power or position, the entire human race has been socially, economically and mentally impacted. This pandemic has prompted people to realise that, for a human race to be wiped out, nothing big or fancy but a simple invisible enemy like Covid-19 is a sufficient tool. There have been theories and histories of a celestial body hitting the earth hard to cause a thick blanket of dust to engulf the earth and stop sunlight giving way to an ice-age and wiping out living things. The other presumed doomsday was by air pollution leading to global warming to finally choke living beings into extinction. At this juncture, globalisation looks to have failed due to Covid-19 crisis and has brought regionalisation and creation of safe zones and bubble areas. The entire human population on earth may or may not have access to all the required sanitization gear but the fear of infection has prompted everyone to be extra vigilant. The global trade of sanitization gear has been a lucrative one. Covid-19 has deepened misunderstandings among the major global political players like the USA and China. The latest example of deteriorating relations is Australia-China tussle in multilateral issues prompting complications in resolving trade and tariffs provisions. This is very likely to shift global political power dynamics. People had hardly imagined that world. The schools and universities carrying uncertain lesson plans and offices moved to homes with candle less hotels and bars. There has been a positive note on these lockdowns as the earth got a chance to release its stress.
The Covid-19 crisis has not only brought economic stress upon people but also provided the opportunity to finish long pending political tasks. For instance, the border disputes in the Himalayan region between Nepal, India and China, a military build-up in disputed south china sea would have come up differently or at a different time rather than at a lock-up stage. As mentioned, the alarm bells of climate change and global warming is overshadowed by the Covid-19 crisis. The UN bodies are overpowered by powerful nations in the race for a vaccine. The global political dynamic shift is going to cause strain and stress in the diplomatic relationships of major world economies. The countries on the world stage are building up a Covid alliance to jointly fight the pandemic. The human race might have to face deadlier pandemics in the future, but the need of the present hour to fight this pandemic as a united world body.
Final Thougths
This invisible enemy is a challenge to the entirety of humanity irrespective of caste, creed, race of nationalism. The real opportunity to be a global citizen has come to prove for all and sundry to fight unitedly. However, to vie for the in-toto global unity is not achievable in practice and is a tricky affair to attempt for the so-called “powerful nations”. The power struggle and media publicity for credit are going to be imminent once Covid-19 vaccine starts commercial production. To avoid another economic disaster, the vaccine war must end, and the world body should be united to regulate this. The Covid-19 pandemic is at the verge of shaking global political power balance, and the world is already heading towards another great depression.
Discourses on the ailing global human civilisation bring key players to take responsibility for imagining and pursuing alternative futures. Some social scientists are rejecting the ideological platform of the so-called ‘new normal’ that establishes contexts in terms of continued exertion of control and induced epidemiological traditions after lockdowns and imposed restrictions. In its place, human society, governments, media and experts should inform and design transformative reforms for equitable and sustainable development to tackle the inequities caused by the pandemic, and restructure our relations in society and with the environment.
Therefore, a newly formulated cold war in the form of vaccine war can’t be ruled out. To check and balance this vaccine war, present global players should act more responsibly to stick to the global interest rather than national or regional interest. However, we must accept the fact that this Covid-19 pandemic has changed the world forever.
Dr Ramkrishna Niraula affiliated withUniversity of South Australia (UniSA)
Dr Bharat Raj Poudel affiliated with Queensland University of Technology (QUT)/Federation of Nepalese Community Association of Australia (FeNCAA)-Research Team
(Picture credit: Rajesh Manandhar, Budhanilkanths School, Kathmandu, Nepal)
The views expressed in this article is of the authors. This article's edited version is published in The Rising Nepal. Authers have extended (TRN) article and republished with this verson.
